Currently electric cars represent only a small fraction of all cars sold in the world, but this aspect is destined to change in the coming years.
According to the analyzes done by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in fact, the percentage of the market of electric vehicles is destined to grow in the immediate future.
In detail, estimates indicate that by 2040, 57% of the vehicles purchased worldwide could be electric. This estimate was revised in the growth of two percentage points compared to the same analysis conducted last year by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Therefore, according to the study, in that period electric vehicles will constitute a similar percentage of sales compared to light commercial vehicles in the United States, Europe and China.
In that case, we can affirm that we are facing the possibility that global sales of traditional-powered cars have exceeded their maximum.
The cost of buying electric cars is becoming similar to the cost of gasoline and diesel cars, also considering that management costs are already lower. This means that electric cars will soon overtake internal combustion cars, because it is the most economical option for clients.
According to the study, in the next two decades sales of electric vehicles worldwide will increase from 2 million last year to 56 million in 2040. At the same time, the sales of traditional motor cars will experience a decrease of 85 million vehicles purchased in 2018 to 42 million in 2040.
This change will be driven in the coming years by the drop in the prices of batteries, this price is already falling fast. In fact, since 2010, the cost of batteries per kilowatt-hour has decreased by 85% thanks to the constant improvement of production and the growing economies achieved by the increase of demand.
Considering these current trends, electric cars should be cheaper than internal combustion vehicles by 2025, both in terms of purchase cost and long-term ownership. In fact, electric cars cost less to own and drive because electricity is way cheaper than gasoline or diesel. They also require less maintenance because they have fewer moving parts.
The analysis still says that the number of cars on the road will continue to grow, but that the impact on the environment of greenhouse gases emissions will be limited by the increase in sales of electric cars. Emissions will begin to decrease drastically in the years before 2040, but this only means that they will return to the levels registered in 2018.
Car sharing services will switch to electric vehicles faster than private owners. Fleet owners of vehicles are generally more aware of the costs of maintenance and refueling than private users.
Currently, there are more than one billion users of shared mobility services worldwide. These services will continue to grow and gradually reduce the demand for private vehicle ownership.
According to the study, China will continue to boost sales of electric cars, but China’s share in the global market will decrease as more countries increase their relative share.
China is expected to represent 48% of all electric cars sold in 2025, but only 26% in 2040. Meanwhile, Europe will overtake the United States in the market share of electric cars during 2020.